Wuliangye (000858): High-end Wuliangye volume and price rise, income continues to grow

Wuliangye (000858): High-end Wuliangye volume and price rise, income continues to grow

The volume and price of high-end Wuliangye rose, driving the company’s revenue performance to continue to grow rapidly. The company announced that it expects H1 revenue of 271 in 1991.

About 500 million, an annual increase of 26.

About 50%; 19Q2 income 95.

6 billion or so, an increase of 27 in ten years.

06%.

We estimate that the revenue of high-end Wuliangye will increase by more than 25% in the first half of the year, mainly due to sales growth. We expect the sales of high-end Wuliangye to increase by about 25%. According to Weijiu, the company raised prices for some high-end wine products and general distribution brands.The expected growth rate is reduced, and the average price in the first half of the year is expected to increase by a small number.

As for the series of wines, the series of wines continue to focus on the “4 + 4” core brands, and the revenue is expected to increase by more than 20%.

The company announced that it expects net profit attributable to mothers to be RMB 9.3 billion in H1 in 2019, a year-on-year increase of approximately 31%; net profit attributable to mothers in 19Q228.

250 thousand yuan, an increase of 32 in ten years.

About 07%.

We expect that the growth rate of net profit will be faster than the growth rate of revenue in the same period mainly due to the structural upgrade, the increase in the gross profit margin caused by the price increase of some products and the reduction of the replacement rate.

We expect the premium wine revenue to grow faster than the series of wines. At the same time, the company focuses on the “4 + 4” core products for the series of wine cleaning brands, and the product structure is improved. In early 19th the company also raised prices for some series of wine brands and some high-end brands;The reduction in the expected growth rate on the 1st is equivalent to a price increase of 2.

3%.

Deepen the reform of channels and product systems, with a high probability of completing expected revenue targets in 19 years. The 19-year conversion reform measures will gradually come to fruition. We believe that the company will significantly improve its management, products and channels, and release the system reform dividend with a 25% chance of completing the system.Income target.

Considering that the company has reduced the merger and expansion ratio of new product price increases this year, the profitability is expected to further improve.

Earnings forecast We expect the company’s revenue to be 50佛山桑拿网1 in 19-21.

14/599.

85/707.

140,000 yuan, an increase of 25 in ten years.

19% / 19.

70% / 17.

88%; net profit was 174.

48/218.

30/267.

180,000 yuan, an increase of 30 in ten years.

36% / 25.

12% / 22.

39%; EPS are 4 respectively.

50/5.

62/6.

88 yuan / share, corresponding to PE is 26/21/17 times. The company’s 20-21 year net profit compound growth rate is expected to be about 24%. As the industry’s second largest brand, the company has high performance growth stability, giving it 24 times in 20 years.PE, reasonable value 134.

88 yuan / share, maintain BUY rating.

Risk reminder: the reform progress is less than expected, the approval price increase is less than expected, food safety risks

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