Greenland Holdings (600606): Reform and Active Replenishment Benchmarking Project Steady Progress

Greenland Holdings (600606): Reform and Active Replenishment Benchmarking Project Steady Progress
The core point of view The company issued an announcement, adding 13 real estate projects in November, with a total land price of 112 trillion, a built-up area of 4.09 million square meters, and a floor price of 2735 yuan / square meter. It is expected that the added value will exceed 43.5 billion yuan.The company’s low-value supplements are plentiful, and Wuhan’s benchmarking projects are advancing steadily. The real estate infrastructure has grown steadily, the financial improvement rating has been upgraded, and the dividend rate has been steadily increased.The EPS for 2019-2021 is maintained at 1.15.1.38, 1.65 yuan profit forecast, target price 8.63-9.78 yuan, maintain “Buy” rating.  Focusing on key strategic areas, supplementing the abundant value with low prices In November, the company adhered to the idea of “optimizing the investment layout of the main land industry and continuing to cultivate the national strategic areas”, Jiaxing Xiangjiadang, a new growth triangle integration area, and Wujiang Taihu New Town, Suzhou.High-speed rail project in Suzhou Xiangcheng District, and core projects in national key strategic areas such as Xi’an Xixian New District.From January to November, the company took 38.01 million square meters of land, a year of -11%, and the total price of the land was 1,007 megabytes, each time + 29%; the amount of land was 38%, each time +15 percentage points, two consecutiveAnnual increase; the value of newly added goods is close to 4500 trillion, ranking fourth in the industry according to data from Kerer; floor price of 2438 yuan / flat, floor price accounts for 24% of the average sales price, and continue to maintain the cost advantage of land acquisition.  The benchmarking project progressed steadily and the sales quality improved steadily. On December 2nd, the company’s benchmarking project Wuhan Greenland Center main tower steel structure construction was basically completed, and the M1280D boom tower crane began 深圳桑拿网 to be demolished, marking the final sprint of the top floor construction.The project, with an altitude of 500 meters and a total of 98 floors, is the tallest building in Central China. Upon completion, it will become the commanding height of Wuhan and the city’s business card, fully demonstrating the company’s super high-rise project construction strength.Affected by the pace of supply and market changes in Nanjing and Suzhou, the company realized a sales area of 27.88 million square meters from January to November, -8% per year; the sales amount was 264.8 billion, -18%.However, the company focuses on improving the quality of sales. The residential loan recovery rate is nearly 95%, and the overall loan recovery rate is about 85%.The key areas of the Yangtze River Delta integration and other core areas have steadily increased their market share, with Shanghai, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Shandong, Guangdong and other core areas contributing over 80%.  Real estate infrastructure grows in two rounds, financial improvement rating is upgraded 1-3Q The company’s performance has exceeded the final year, real estate infrastructure has grown well: completed turnover + 64%, driving real estate revenue to increase + 21%, the gross margin affected by the structure is higher than H1 Slightly to 26.5%; the newly signed contract value of infrastructure business + 28% per year, and revenue + 38% twice.Investment income and loss from changes in fair value increase by 3.8 billion annually, which also contributes to performance.We expect the company’s future dividend rate to increase steadily on the basis of 32% in 2018.The company’s finance continued to be optimized. Operating net cash inflows for the 14th consecutive quarter were positive, and the net debt ratio at the end of Q3 was -2 earlier.Six averages to 179%. On October 11, Standard & Poor’s upgraded the company’s rating outlook to positive, which was the second consecutive increase in a year or so.The company reissued in November 3.700 million US dollars debt, coupon rate maintained at 5.6% low.  The era of trillions is advancing steadily. Maintaining a “Buy” rating. We maintain the EPS for 2019-2021.15.1.38, 1.65 yuan profit forecast.Refer to comparable companies for July 2019.7 times PE estimate, we think the company’s reasonable PE estimate for 2019 is 7.5-8.5 times, target price 8.63-9.78 yuan, maintain “Buy” rating.  Risk reminder: there is uncertainty in the pace, scope and intensity of industrial policy advancement; overlapping real estate fundamentals may drag down sales of the company; tight industry financing, and capital construction capital increase pressure on the capital chain.

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