Zijin Mining (601899): Forecast 4Q19 results slightly higher than expected output increase growth space

Zijin Mining (601899): Forecast 4Q19 results slightly higher than expected output increase growth space
Foreseeing 2019 profit of US $ 41-43 million Zijin Mining predicts that net profit attributable to mothers in 2019 will be US $ 41-43 million, which will gradually increase by 0.2% -5%, slightly exceeding our expectations; implied 10Q net profit attributable to mothers in 4Q19.9-12.9 trillion, a year-on-year increase of 48% -75%, a month-on-month decrease of 5% -up 12%.The notice deducts the non-returned net profit of 36.5 to 400,000 yuan, an increase of 19 every 佛山桑拿网 year.2% -30.7%, implying 4Q19 deduction of non-attribution net profit 9-12.5 ‰, an increase of 10 per year.6-14.100 million, a decrease of 18%-an increase of 14%. Yield contraction increased.The company’s mineral gold is 40 in 2019.8 tons, previous + 12%; mineral copper 37, + 49% each time; zinc 37.4 inches, previously + 35%; iron concentrate 353 inches, at least + 19%.In the fourth quarter of 19, mineral gold was 11.4 tons per year + 10% / mom + 11%; mineral copper 10.6 inches per year + 60% / mom + 13%; mineral zinc 9.5 inches, before + 63% / mom + 4%; iron concentrate 134 inches, + 31% / mom + 162% per year. Metal prices have diverged.Gold and iron concentrates performed better in 2019, while copper and zinc were relatively weak.The average price of gold in the fourth quarter of 1940 US dollars / ton, a period of + 21% / chain + 1%, the long-term average price rose + 10%; in the fourth quarter of 19, the average price of iron ore was 811 yuan / ton, many times + 6%/ MoM-11%, average annual price + 30%.The average price of 4Q19 LME copper is US $ 5,925 / ton, continuous -4% / moon + 2%, thus the average price is -8% continuously; the average price of 4Q19 LME zinc is US $ 2,361 / ton, lasted -8% / moon + 1%, fullThe average annual price is -13%. Focus on key grains to increase room for growth.According to the “Announcement on Guiding Opinions on the Work in the Next Three Years (2020-2022)”, the company slightly raised the output index of mineral gold in 2020/21/22 to 44 / 42-47 / 49-54 tons, maintaining the output index of mineral copper 41 /Above 50-56 / 67-74, the mineral zinc production index is above 40 / 37-41 / 38-42.For the Timok belt mine and Kamoa-Kakura copper mine, the company’s goal is to work hard to achieve production in 2021 and achieve 30% of the designed capacity, 2022 to achieve 70% of the designed capacity, and reach production in 2023. Estimates and suggested changes in earnings, prices and other assumptions, we raised our 2019/20 profit forecast by 9% / 28% to $ 4.2 / 52 billion, while dating the 2021 profit forecast to $ 6.1 billion. The company’s current A / H share breakthrough corresponds to 19/14 times 2020 P / E ratio.Due to the recent impact of the new crown epidemic, the company’s A / H shares have gradually decreased by 23% / 21% from the previous high in the previous month. However, if the epidemic is under control, the 2Q20 copper price is expected to usher in a rebound and investors are advised to absorb it on dips.We maintain our A / H stock outperform industry rating and target price of 5.5 yuan / 4.8 Hong Kong dollars, corresponding to a 27/20 times price-earnings ratio in 2020, which is 43% / 46% more growth space than currently expected. Risk production capacity grew less than expected and metal prices fell sharply.

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