Livzon Group (000513) Quarterly Report Review: Strengthening Structural Adjustments
The first three quarter results are in line with expectations with a target price of 30.
34 yuan, maintaining the “buy” rating company released three quarterly reports on October 22, achieving revenue of 73.
0 billion (+6.
6%), net profit attributable to mother 10.
400 million (+10.
7%), deducting non-attributed net profit 9.
600 million (+20.
It grew by 3% year-on-year, of which the single-quarter growth rate in 3Q was 33.
1%), performance growth basically in line with our expectations.
Taking into account the continued heavy volume of new medical insurance benefited by Aip, the focus on monitoring the decline in the proportion of senators and NGF revenue, we maintain a long-term performance growth forecast of 15-20% and maintain the EPS forecast for 19-21 to 1.
82 yuan, given an estimated range of 19-23 times in 2020 (comparable company’s 20-year average is 21 times), with an adjusted target price of 30.
34 yuan, maintain BUY rating.
Western medicine section: Aipu benefited from medical insurance or speeded up, and assisted reproduction increased steadily. Western medicine section 9M19 income 39.
3 ‰ (+ 17% year-on-year), we are optimistic about the vertical growth rate of about 20%, and the forecast is based on: 1) the variable 9M19 of the digestive tract13.
800 million (+ 44% year-on-year), mainly due to Aip contributed 7.
500 million (up 67% year-on-year), of which tablets 9M19 achieved 6.
800 million US dollars, a year-on-year increase of 54%, optimistic about the new medical insurance to separate reflux esophagitis indications to provide incremental space; injections increased by 6 times to 75 million yuan, follow-up or benefit from new medical insurance to achieve faster growth, we are optimistic about the two dosage forms1 billion sales during the year; 2) Gonadotropin 9M19 achieved a 15% growth rate, of which follicle stimulating hormone (+6.
5% (year-on-year) and Liang Bing (+ 25% (year-on-year)) plan to achieve a growth rate of 10% / 25% in the reproductive year of 2019; 3) Rabe and voriconazole will increase by 15% and 6%, respectively, due to sales adjustments.Stabilized.
The proportion of ginseng and NGF income decreased, and the optimistic recovery of APIs and diagnostic reagents increased ginseng 9M19 up to 6.
7 ppm (shrinkage at 18.
5%, subject to the restriction of the key monitoring catalogue and the increase in medical insurance coverage, which will be extended by 22% in a single quarter.) We expect its revenue share to decline, and with sales reform and grass-roots coverage factors, the continuous decline will remain at 15-20%.About 800 million tons.
NGF is affected by the dual interference of the key monitoring directory and the removable medical insurance directory. The 9M19 offset is 15%, and it is expected to continue to exhibit two digital offsets.
The raw material medicine board achieved 17 in 9M19.
7 megabits (+1.
8% yoy), optimistic about the proportion of specialty APIs increasing, gross profit margins continue to improve, and the income side is expected to resume 10% growth; the diagnostic business 9M19 has achieved a growth rate of about 13%, and is optimistic about the complete chemiluminescence, multiple detection and molecules in this and next two yearsNew nucleic acid products are gradually on the market, and resumed growth next year.
“Mab + microsphere” platform: Innovative and orderly advance Livzon’s centralized carding pipeline during the year, followed by abundant cash flow (expected to spend 700-800 million R & D expenses during the year), and promote innovative heavy listings (company guidelines) By 2020, there will be about 2-3 varieties in clinical phase III), of which the monoclonal antibody platform: 1) rhCG is expected to get production approval in 1H20, is expected to achieve high gross profit to achieve 200-300 million; 2) Perjeta I-It is also in the Ib stage, and it is expected that phase III (HER2-positive neoadjuvant and late pregnancy) will be started 南京龙凤网 directly in 1H20; 3) The domestic progress of IL-6R is first, and phase III is in progress, and it is optimistic to report production in 2021.
Phase I of the microsphere platform Quprelin (1 month) is underway, and Phase III is expected to start by the end of the year, with production scheduled for 2021.
Subsequently, the top three clinical blockbusters (dual antibodies, tumor vaccines and interferon broad-spectrum anticancer drugs) were carried out, and they are optimistic about promoting the overall innovation of the pipeline.
Risk warning: The reduction of neurotoxicity of Shenqi and rat is more than expected, and the development progress is not as expected.